1. Market forecast for the domestic bearing industry

The uncertainties in the domestic bearing market will be further increased in 2012, and the market of bearing industry will show low first and then high. It is expected the downward trend of the fourth quarter of 2011 will continue in the first half of 2012, and the market will recover slowly in the second half year, but the recovery rate is limited. It is estimated the overall stable development trend will be formed in the second half year. Therefore, since the initial results of transformation and upgrading, and structural adjustment of some enterprises in the industry, especially large-scale backbone enterprises in recent years, have begun to appear, it is expected that in 2012 the main business of the bearing industry revenue will reach about 158 billion yuan, an increase of about 11%, and the bearing business income will reach 112 billion yuan, with the growth rate of about 12%. The bearing production will reach 21 billion units, an increase of around 16%. 

Meanwhile, the negative factors of the business environment and the business risks in 2012 will increase. The supporting demand of many host industry in the first half is inadequate, the orders of bearing enterprises reduce, and orders of the majority of enterprises in the first half are less than 50%, operating under the productive capacity. A number of newly built or expanded projects has been put into operation, making the original overcapacity ordinary product market form the excessive competition and threatening the survival of part of the enterprises. The rising prices of production factors of labor and originally attached materials increase the business cost and lower the profits. The business inventories rise, the accounts receivable increase and the recycling becomes more difficult, especially the SMEs, with tight liquidity.   

2. Market forecast for the foreign bearing industry

Internationally, the Euro crisis can not be improved in the short term, the US-Japan economy stagnates, Asia's economic growth may slow down, and all of these will affect China's bearing exports. However, from another perspective, the downturn of the international economy is bound to promote various economic efforts to reduce cost pressures. The price performance ratio of China's bearings has certain advantages, and with the development of China's bearing industry in recent years, not only the ball bearings occupy a certain market in the international community, but also the roller bearings export has made great progress, from the changes in the structure of exports in recent years,. And it also has the trend to develop into the large bearings. Therefore, in 2012 China's bearing exports will not continue this year's high growth trend, but the pace of development will not decrease greatly compared with the speed in recent years. It is expected in 2012 the bearing exports will increase with the growth rate of about 15%.